Titre
Ireland's Trading Potential with Central and Eastern European Countries: A Gravity Study
Type
article
Institution
UNIL/CHUV/Unisanté + institutions partenaires
Périodique
Auteur(s)
Brülhart, M.
Auteure/Auteur
Kelly, M.
Auteure/Auteur
Liens vers les personnes
Liens vers les unités
ISSN
0012-9984
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
1999
Volume
30
Numéro
2
Première page
159
Dernière page/numéro d’article
174
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Using a gravity model, we estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Ireland and the five CEEC countries currently negotiating accession to the EU. We find that Irish exports were already close to their "normal" level in 1994, but that imports from the CEECs were still only half of their "normal" size. The value of estimated "normal" trade corresponds to 0.8 percent of Irish GNP. The actual share in 1994 was 0.5 percent. EU enlargement would raise Ireland-CEEC trade to 1.2 percent of GNP. The short-term scope for trade expansion therefore appears to be modest. Stronger potential for trade growth emerges in the "long-term" scenario, which assumes partial income convergence of the EU and the CEECs. According to our upper-limit estimate in the convergence scenario, the value of Irish trade with the CEECs could reach 7.7 percent of Irish GNP in 2020.
PID Serval
serval:BIB_7C4C3FC0943D
Date de création
2007-11-19T09:35:33.922Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-21T00:00:16Z