Titre

Substituting risk for uncertainty. Where are the limits and how to face them?

Type
article
Institution
UNIL/CHUV/Unisanté + institutions partenaires
Périodique
Les Cahiers de l’IEP / IEP Working Papers Series
Auteur(s)
Maechler, Sylvain
Co-première auteure/Co-premier auteur
Graz, Jean-Christophe
Co-dernière auteure/Co-dernier auteur
Furrer, Etienne
Auteure/Auteur
Lunghi, Emma Sofia
Auteure/Auteur
Monthoux, Marc
Auteure/Auteur
Yousefzai, Céline
Auteure/Auteur
Liens vers les personnes
Liens vers les unités
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2019-10-01
Numéro
73
Première page
1
Dernière page/numéro d’article
26
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Dealing with uncertainty has become a matter of great concern of policy makers and scientific research in a world facing global, epochal and complex changes. Such call for a comprehensive understanding of the implications of uncertainties lead to the broader question of: can we anticipate the future, and if so, how? This conceptual paper explores the ability to anticipate the future by converting undefined uncertainties into manageable risks. To do so, we distinguish between epistemic and ontological level of analysis, to argue that there are both epistemic and ontological limits in the substitu-tion of risk for uncertainty. We build in particular on the distinction drawn by Frank H. Knight (1921) between risk and true uncertainty to put forward such limits. Yet, in contrast to Knight who relies on expert judgment to overcome the epistemic limits, we suggest that the future cannot be fully anticipated through the production of new knowledge. Notwithstanding, we contend that we are better armed to face an unknown future with a co-production of knowledge by a larger range of actors. We illustrate our argument with the uncertainties arising from the current global ecological crisis.
Sujets

ecological crisis, Fr...

PID Serval
serval:BIB_6F12997045F6
Permalien
Date de création
2020-01-19T05:42:48.818Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-21T03:36:32Z
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Nom

Cahier IEP n°73 (Maechler et al 2019)(2).pdf

Version du manuscrit

published

Taille

373.87 KB

Format

Adobe PDF

PID Serval

serval:BIB_6F12997045F6.P001

URN

urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_6F12997045F64

Somme de contrôle

(MD5):16f0fd151a1689818f89281cd225ef62