Titre
Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM
Type
article
Institution
Externe
Périodique
Auteur(s)
Fischer, Matthias
Auteure/Auteur
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.
Auteure/Auteur
Müller, Wolfgang A.
Auteure/Auteur
Baehr, Johanna
Auteure/Auteur
Liens vers les personnes
ISSN
2190-4987
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2017-02-22
Volume
8
Numéro
1
Première page
129
Dernière page/numéro d’article
146
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Résumé
We investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, covering the simulation period from 2005 to 2300, to a historical simulation, covering the simulation period from 1850 to 2005. In RCP 8.5, the OHT declines by 30–50 % in comparison to the historical simulation in the North Atlantic by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the changes in the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly result from changes in the wind-driven surface circulation, which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads in turn to latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the overturning component. In comparison to the historical simulation, in the subpolar North Atlantic, in RCP 8.5 we find a reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened amplitude by the end of the 23rd century.
Sujets
PID Serval
serval:BIB_73D52F91157A
URL éditeur
Open Access
Oui
Date de création
2022-03-08T13:13:18.441Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-20T21:25:10Z
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Nom
esd-8-129-2017.pdf
Version du manuscrit
published
Licence
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Taille
5.28 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
PID Serval
serval:BIB_73D52F91157A.P001
Somme de contrôle
(MD5):fb149ea33bef32df567902b089dcf020