Titre
Towards a macro model of National Health Service waiting lists
Type
article
Institution
UNIL/CHUV/Unisanté + institutions partenaires
Périodique
Auteur(s)
van Ackere, A.
Auteure/Auteur
Smith, P.C.
Auteure/Auteur
Liens vers les personnes
Liens vers les unités
ISSN
0883-7066
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
1999
Volume
15
Numéro
3
Première page
225
Dernière page/numéro d’article
252
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Waiting lists for elective surgery have been endemic to the UK National Health Service since its inception in 1948. The lists arise as a result of interaction between supply factors (the provision of resources and the efficiency of their use) and demand factors (arising from a complex conjunction of the perceptions and preferences of patients and physicians). This article takes the first steps towards the development of a macro model of the NHS waiting list. It adopts an economics perspective and assumes that the waiting time for surgery, as perceived by patients, physicians and managers, is a central influence on the quantity of elective surgery demanded and supplied. Using the methods of system dynamics, econometric results are integrated into a dynamic model that seeks to illustrate the path taken over time by the national system of elective surgery. It explores a number of future scenarios, and finds that the NHS will quickly cease to be a universal service if resources fail to keep pace with increases in demand.
PID Serval
serval:BIB_DD891B47A2B9
Date de création
2009-06-02T12:56:54.359Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-21T05:31:18Z