Titre
Incident heart failure prediction in the elderly: the health ABC heart failure score.
Type
article
Institution
Externe
Périodique
Circulation. Heart Failure
Auteur(s)
Butler, J.
Auteure/Auteur
Kalogeropoulos, A.
Auteure/Auteur
Georgiopoulou, V.
Auteure/Auteur
Belue, R.
Auteure/Auteur
Rodondi, N.
Auteure/Auteur
Garcia, M.
Auteure/Auteur
Bauer, D.C.
Auteure/Auteur
Satterfield, S.
Auteure/Auteur
Smith, A.L.
Auteure/Auteur
Vaccarino, V.
Auteure/Auteur
Newman, A.B.
Auteure/Auteur
Harris, T.B.
Auteure/Auteur
Wilson, P.W.
Auteure/Auteur
Kritchevsky, S.B.
Auteure/Auteur
Groupes de travail
Health ABC Study
Liens vers les personnes
ISSN
1941-3297
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2008
Volume
1
Numéro
2
Première page
125
Dernière page/numéro d’article
133
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Comparative Study ; Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Publication Status: ppublish
Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Despite the rising heart failure (HF) incidence and aging United States population, there are no validated prediction models for incident HF in the elderly. We sought to develop a new prediction model for 5-year risk of incident HF among older persons.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Proportional hazards models were used to assess independent predictors of incident HF, defined as hospitalization for new-onset HF, in 2935 elderly participants without baseline HF enrolled in the Health ABC study (age, 73.6 +/- 2.9 years, 47.9% males, 58.6% whites). A prediction equation was developed and internally validated by bootstrapping, allowing the development of a 5-year risk score. Incident HF developed in 258 (8.8%) participants during 6.5 +/- 1.8 years of follow-up. Independent predictors of incident HF included age, history of coronary disease and smoking, baseline systolic blood pressure and heart rate, serum glucose, creatinine, and albumin levels, and left ventricular hypertrophy. The Health ABC HF model had a c-statistic of 0.73 in the derivation dataset, 0.72 by internal validation (optimism-corrected), and good calibration (goodness-of-fit 2 6.24, P=0.621). A simple point score was created to predict incident HF risk into 4 risk groups corresponding to <5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 20%, and >20% 5-year risk. The actual 5-year incident HF rates in these groups were 2.9%, 5.7%, 13.3%, and 36.8%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: The Health ABC HF prediction model uses common clinical variables to predict incident HF risk in the elderly, an approach that may be used to target and treat high-risk individuals.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Proportional hazards models were used to assess independent predictors of incident HF, defined as hospitalization for new-onset HF, in 2935 elderly participants without baseline HF enrolled in the Health ABC study (age, 73.6 +/- 2.9 years, 47.9% males, 58.6% whites). A prediction equation was developed and internally validated by bootstrapping, allowing the development of a 5-year risk score. Incident HF developed in 258 (8.8%) participants during 6.5 +/- 1.8 years of follow-up. Independent predictors of incident HF included age, history of coronary disease and smoking, baseline systolic blood pressure and heart rate, serum glucose, creatinine, and albumin levels, and left ventricular hypertrophy. The Health ABC HF model had a c-statistic of 0.73 in the derivation dataset, 0.72 by internal validation (optimism-corrected), and good calibration (goodness-of-fit 2 6.24, P=0.621). A simple point score was created to predict incident HF risk into 4 risk groups corresponding to <5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 20%, and >20% 5-year risk. The actual 5-year incident HF rates in these groups were 2.9%, 5.7%, 13.3%, and 36.8%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: The Health ABC HF prediction model uses common clinical variables to predict incident HF risk in the elderly, an approach that may be used to target and treat high-risk individuals.
PID Serval
serval:BIB_FD933C873590
PMID
Open Access
Oui
Date de création
2016-10-26T15:04:23.234Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-21T05:53:02Z
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BIB_FD933C873590.P001.pdf
Version du manuscrit
postprint
Taille
1.13 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
PID Serval
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