Titre
Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.
Type
article
Institution
UNIL/CHUV/Unisanté + institutions partenaires
Périodique
Auteur(s)
Patiño, J.
Auteure/Auteur
Mateo, R.G.
Auteure/Auteur
Zanatta, F.
Auteure/Auteur
Marquet, A.
Auteure/Auteur
Aranda, S.C.
Auteure/Auteur
Borges, P.A.
Auteure/Auteur
Dirkse, G.
Auteure/Auteur
Gabriel, R.
Auteure/Auteur
Gonzalez-Mancebo, J.M.
Auteure/Auteur
Guisan, A.
Auteure/Auteur
Muñoz, J.
Auteure/Auteur
Sim-Sim, M.
Auteure/Auteur
Vanderpoorten, A.
Auteure/Auteur
Liens vers les personnes
Liens vers les unités
ISSN
2045-2322
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2016-07-05
Volume
6
Première page
29156
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: epublish
Publication Status: epublish
Résumé
Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62-87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.
PID Serval
serval:BIB_B9D9E6A0799B
PMID
Open Access
Oui
Date de création
2016-06-15T20:16:15.215Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-21T02:20:34Z
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Nom
27377592_BIB_B9D9E6A0799B.pdf
Version du manuscrit
published
Licence
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Taille
761.9 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
PID Serval
serval:BIB_B9D9E6A0799B.P001
URN
urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_B9D9E6A0799B6
Somme de contrôle
(MD5):9015d814fa2e4fc7a24eab56dd8c9007