Titre
Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Is Predicted by Measures of Solar Activity.
Type
article
Institution
UNIL/CHUV/Unisanté + institutions partenaires
Périodique
Auteur(s)
Stienen, M.N.
Auteure/Auteur
Smoll, N.R.
Auteure/Auteur
Battaglia, M.
Auteure/Auteur
Schatlo, B.
Auteure/Auteur
Woernle, C.M.
Auteure/Auteur
Fung, C.
Auteure/Auteur
Röthlisberger, M.
Auteure/Auteur
Daniel, R.T.
Auteure/Auteur
Fathi, A.R.
Auteure/Auteur
Fandino, J.
Auteure/Auteur
Hildebrandt, G.
Auteure/Auteur
Schaller, K.
Auteure/Auteur
Bijlenga, P.
Auteure/Auteur
Groupes de travail
Swiss SOS study group
Liens vers les personnes
Liens vers les unités
ISSN
1878-8750
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2015
Volume
83
Numéro
4
Première page
588
Dernière page/numéro d’article
595
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
OBJECTIVE: The cause precipitating intracranial aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. It has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time, but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. Because solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, we decided to study its association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population.
METHODS: Patient data were extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 consecutive patients with angiography-proven aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage treated at 7 Swiss neurovascular centers between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. The daily rupture frequency (RF) was correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux [F10.7 index], solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index, Space Environment Services Center [SESC] sunspot number and sunspot area) using Poisson regression analysis.
RESULTS: During the period of interest, there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27, 12, 1, and 1 days with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 ruptures per day. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and RF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719-1.008894; P < 0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. A likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95% CI 1.001864-1.004965; P < 0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95% CI 1.000249-1.000589; P < 0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no significant correlation with RF.
CONCLUSIONS: We found greater radioflux, SESC sunspot number, and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. The clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully and future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.
METHODS: Patient data were extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 consecutive patients with angiography-proven aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage treated at 7 Swiss neurovascular centers between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. The daily rupture frequency (RF) was correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux [F10.7 index], solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index, Space Environment Services Center [SESC] sunspot number and sunspot area) using Poisson regression analysis.
RESULTS: During the period of interest, there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27, 12, 1, and 1 days with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 ruptures per day. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and RF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719-1.008894; P < 0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. A likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95% CI 1.001864-1.004965; P < 0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95% CI 1.000249-1.000589; P < 0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no significant correlation with RF.
CONCLUSIONS: We found greater radioflux, SESC sunspot number, and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. The clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully and future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.
PID Serval
serval:BIB_54974EA9949A
PMID
Date de création
2015-05-19T16:25:38.400Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-20T20:51:00Z