Titre
Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.
Type
article
Institution
UNIL/CHUV/Unisanté + institutions partenaires
Périodique
Auteur(s)
Vicente, J.R.
Auteure/Auteur
Fernandes, R.F.
Auteure/Auteur
Randin, C.F.
Auteure/Auteur
Broennimann, O.
Auteure/Auteur
Gonçalves, J.
Auteure/Auteur
Marcos, B.
Auteure/Auteur
Pôças, I.
Auteure/Auteur
Alves, P.
Auteure/Auteur
Guisan, A.
Auteure/Auteur
Honrado, J.P.
Auteure/Auteur
Liens vers les personnes
Liens vers les unités
ISSN
1095-8630
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2013
Volume
131
Première page
185
Dernière page/numéro d’article
195
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.
PID Serval
serval:BIB_3031BAE3E331
PMID
Date de création
2013-07-28T19:23:13.271Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-20T14:28:36Z