Titre
The contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy: an empirical study.
Type
article
Institution
UNIL/CHUV/Unisanté + institutions partenaires
Périodique
Auteur(s)
Rossi Isabelle, A.
Auteure/Auteur
Rousson, Valentin
Auteure/Auteur
Paccaud, Fred
Auteure/Auteur
Liens vers les personnes
Liens vers les unités
ISSN
1464-3685
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2013
Volume
42
Numéro
1
Première page
250
Dernière page/numéro d’article
258
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Publication Status: ppublish; Methods
Résumé
BACKGROUND: In low-mortality countries, life expectancy is increasing steadily. This increase can be disentangled into two separate components: the delayed incidence of death (i.e. the rectangularization of the survival curve) and the shift of maximal age at death to the right (i.e. the extension of longevity).
METHODS: We studied the secular increase of life expectancy at age 50 in nine European countries between 1922 and 2006. The respective contributions of rectangularization and longevity to increasing life expectancy are quantified with a specific tool.
RESULTS: For men, an acceleration of rectangularization was observed in the 1980s in all nine countries, whereas a deceleration occurred among women in six countries in the 1960s. These diverging trends are likely to reflect the gender-specific trends in smoking. As for longevity, the extension was steady from 1922 in both genders in almost all countries. The gain of years due to longevity extension exceeded the gain due to rectangularization. This predominance over rectangularization was still observed during the most recent decades.
CONCLUSIONS: Disentangling life expectancy into components offers new insights into the underlying mechanisms and possible determinants. Rectangularization mainly reflects the secular changes of the known determinants of early mortality, including smoking. Explaining the increase of maximal age at death is a more complex challenge. It might be related to slow and lifelong changes in the socio-economic environment and lifestyles as well as population composition. The still increasing longevity does not suggest that we are approaching any upper limit of human longevity.
METHODS: We studied the secular increase of life expectancy at age 50 in nine European countries between 1922 and 2006. The respective contributions of rectangularization and longevity to increasing life expectancy are quantified with a specific tool.
RESULTS: For men, an acceleration of rectangularization was observed in the 1980s in all nine countries, whereas a deceleration occurred among women in six countries in the 1960s. These diverging trends are likely to reflect the gender-specific trends in smoking. As for longevity, the extension was steady from 1922 in both genders in almost all countries. The gain of years due to longevity extension exceeded the gain due to rectangularization. This predominance over rectangularization was still observed during the most recent decades.
CONCLUSIONS: Disentangling life expectancy into components offers new insights into the underlying mechanisms and possible determinants. Rectangularization mainly reflects the secular changes of the known determinants of early mortality, including smoking. Explaining the increase of maximal age at death is a more complex challenge. It might be related to slow and lifelong changes in the socio-economic environment and lifestyles as well as population composition. The still increasing longevity does not suggest that we are approaching any upper limit of human longevity.
PID Serval
serval:BIB_9C32A4BE76BF
PMID
Open Access
Oui
Date de création
2012-12-27T12:06:38.560Z
Date de création dans IRIS
2025-05-20T21:04:54Z
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Nom
REF.pdf
Version du manuscrit
published
Taille
430.93 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
PID Serval
serval:BIB_9C32A4BE76BF.P001
URN
urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_9C32A4BE76BF9
Somme de contrôle
(MD5):60ec38281400511e9ed010c2cf64e3ac